Accounting policies
MEASUREMENT PRINCIPLES
With certain exceptions, such as financial instruments measured at fair value and provisions for pensions and other post-employment benefits, items in the Volkswagen Group are accounted for under the historical cost convention (cost model). The methods used to measure the individual items are explained in more detail below.
INTANGIBLE ASSETS
Intangible assets are accounted for under the cost model.
Purchased intangible assets are recognized at cost and – if they have finite useful lives – amortized over their useful lives using the straight-line method. This relates in particular to software, which is normally amortized over three years, or licenses, which are normally amortized over the term of the license.
Development costs for future series products and other internally generated intangible assets are capitalized, provided the cash-generating unit to which the respective intangible asset is attributable is not impaired and the other criteria for recognition as assets are met.
The costs are amortized using the straight-line method from the start of use (e.g. start of production) over the expected life cycle of the models, powertrains or software developed – generally between three and nine years.
Amortization charges on intangible assets are allocated to the relevant functional areas in the income statement.
Brand names from business combinations usually have an indefinite useful life and are therefore not amortized. An indefinite useful life is usually the result of a brand’s further use and maintenance.
Goodwill, intangible assets with indefinite useful lives and intangible assets that are not yet available for use are tested for impairment at least once a year. Assets in use and other intangible assets with finite useful lives are tested for impairment only if there are specific indications that they may be impaired. To determine the recoverable amount of goodwill and intangible assets with indefinite and finite useful lives, the respective brand is normally the cash-generating unit that is used as the testing level. Measurement of value in use is based on management’s current medium-term planning (referred to as budget planning round). The planning period generally covers five years. This planning is based on expectations regarding future global economic trends and on assumptions derived from those trends about the markets for passenger cars and commercial vehicles, expected trends in the Volkswagen Group’s market shares, the timing and cost of the development of vehicle models and the amount of investments in production facilities, as well as changes in price and cost structures, taking particular account of the transformation to e-mobility and an increase in regulatory requirements. The planning for the Financial Services segment is likewise prepared on the basis of these expectations, and also reflects the relevant market penetration rates of expected vehicle sales with finance or lease agreements and other services, as well as regulatory requirements. The planning for the Power Engineering segment reflects expectations about trends in the various individual markets. The planning includes reasonable assumptions about macroeconomic trends (exchange rate, interest rate and commodity price trends) and historical developments.
The Volkswagen Group’s planning is based on the assumption that global economic output will grow overall in 2024 albeit at a slower pace. The persistently high inflation in many regions and the resulting restrictive monetary policy measures taken by central banks are expected to have an increasingly adverse effect on consumer spending. Risks will continue to arise from protectionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, continuing geopolitical tensions and conflicts are weighing on growth prospects; risks are associated in particular with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the confrontations in the Middle East. It is, however, assumed that both the advanced economies and the emerging markets will show positive momentum on average, even with below-average growth in gross domestic product. Moreover, the global economy is expected to recover in 2025 and continue a path of stable growth until 2028.
The Volkswagen Group’s automotive market and volume planning reflects the above regional differentiation and takes account of the impact of regional conflicts. The Volkswagen Group aims to increase the share of all-electric vehicles as a proportion of total deliveries from 8.3% in 2023 to more than 50% in 2030. The negative impact on earnings expected to arise from 2024 onward from higher material costs and more stringent emission and fuel consumption legislation is to be more than offset by improvements in pricing and the product mix as well as corresponding programs to increase efficiency. In addition, the planning is based on the assumption that the supply situation for intermediates and commodities will improve from fiscal year 2024 onward.
For information on the assumptions in the detailed planning period, please refer to the notes on management estimates and judgment. Further details can be found in the Report on Expected Developments, which is part of the management report. The planning assumptions are adapted to reflect the current state of knowledge.
The estimation of cash flows is generally based on the expected growth trends for the markets concerned. The estimates for the cash flows following the end of the planning period are generally based on a growth rate of up to 1% p.a. (previous year: up to 1% p.a.) in the Passenger Cars segment, and on a growth rate of up to 1% p.a. (previous year: up to 1% p.a.) in the Power Engineering and Commercial Vehicles segments.
Value in use is determined for the purpose of impairment testing of goodwill, indefinite-lived intangible assets and finite-lived intangible assets – mainly capitalized development costs – using the following pretax weighted average cost of capital (WACC) rates, which are adjusted if necessary for country-specific discount factors:
WACC |
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2023 |
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2022 |
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Passenger Cars segment |
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10.7% |
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10.2% |
Commercial Vehicles segment |
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12.1% |
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13.4% |
Power Engineering segment |
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15.7% |
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14.2% |
The WACC rates are calculated based on the risk-free rate of interest, a market risk premium and the cost of debt. Additionally, specific peer group information on beta factors and leverage is taken into account. The composition of the peer groups used to determine beta factors and leverage is continuously reviewed and adjusted if necessary.
PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Property, plant and equipment is accounted for under the cost model. Investment grants received are generally deducted from cost. Special operational equipment is reported under other equipment, operating and office equipment. Property, plant and equipment is depreciated using the straight-line method over its estimated useful life.
Depreciation is based mainly on the following useful lives:
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Useful life |
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Buildings |
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Site improvements |
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Technical equipment and machinery |
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Other equipment, operating and office equipment, including special operational equipment |
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Value in use of property, plant and equipment is determined using the principles described for intangible assets. The cost of capital for product-specific tools and other investments is the same as the cost of capital for intangible assets given above for each segment.
LEASES
The right-of-use assets for leases are reported in the balance sheet under those items in which the assets underlying the lease would have been recognized if the Volkswagen Group had been their beneficial owner. For this reason, the right-of-use assets are presented under noncurrent assets, mostly in property, plant and equipment, as of the balance sheet date.
Practical expedients are allowed for short-term and low-value leases; the Volkswagen Group makes use of this option and therefore does not recognize right-of-use assets or liabilities for these types of leases. In this respect, the lease payments are recognized as expenses in the income statement. Leases are accounted for being as of low value if the value of the leased asset when new is no higher than €5,000. Furthermore, the accounting rules of IFRS 16 are not applied to leases of intangible assets.
A large number of leases contain extension and termination options.
LEASE ASSETS
Vehicles leased out under operating leases are recognized at cost and depreciated to their estimated residual value using the straight-line method over the term of the lease. The forecast residual values are adjusted to include constantly updated internal and external information on residual values, depending on specific local factors and experience in the marketing of used cars. This requires management to make assumptions in particular about vehicle supply and demand in the future, as well as about vehicle price trends. Such assumptions are based either on qualified estimates or on data published by external experts. Qualified estimates are based on external data – if available – that reflects additional information that is available from within the company, such as historical experience and current sales data.
INVESTMENT PROPERTY
Real estate and buildings held in order to obtain rental income (investment property) are accounted for under the cost model; the depreciation method and the useful lives applied to depreciation generally correspond to those of the property, plant and equipment used by the Company itself. The fair value of investment property is disclosed in the notes. Fair value is generally estimated using an investment method based on internal calculations. This involves determining the income value for a specific building on the basis of gross income, taking into account additional factors such as land value, remaining useful life and a multiplier specific to property.
CAPITALIZATION OF BORROWING COSTS
Borrowing costs of qualifying assets are capitalized as part of the cost of these assets. A qualifying asset is an asset that necessarily takes at least a year to get ready for its intended use.
EQUITY-ACCOUNTED INVESTMENTS
The cost of shares in associates and joint ventures is accounted for using the equity method. Testing the net investment for impairment, the recoverable amount is determined using the principles described for indefinite-lived intangible assets.
FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
Regular way purchases or sales of financial instruments are accounted for at the settlement date – that is, at the date on which the asset is delivered.
In the Volkswagen Group, financial assets and liabilities are allocated to the “at amortized cost” and “at fair value” categories.
FINANCIAL ASSETS AND LIABILITIES AT AMORTIZED COST
Financial assets measured at amortized cost using the effective interest method relate to
- receivables from financing business;
- trade receivables;
- other receivables and financial assets;
- time deposits;
- cash and cash equivalents.
In contrast, financial liabilities measured at amortized cost using the effective interest method consist of
- trade payables;
- other financial liabilities;
- liabilities to banks;
- commercial paper and notes;
- loans.
For reasons of materiality, discounting or unwinding of discounting is not applied to current receivables and liabilities (due within one year).
FINANCIAL ASSETS AND LIABILITIES AT FAIR VALUE
Financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income relate firstly to non-derivative financial assets with contractual cash flows that relate solely to payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding (debt instruments) that are held with the aim of both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets (“hold and sell” business model). Certain changes in the fair value of these debt instruments (impairment losses, foreign exchange gains and losses, interest calculated using the effective interest method) are recognized immediately in profit or loss.
Secondly, those equity instruments not held for trading (“hold” business model) are measured at fair value through other comprehensive income. Here, Volkswagen exercises the option to recognize changes in fair value always through other comprehensive income.
At Volkswagen, the category of financial assets at fair value through profit or loss primarily comprises
- hedging relationships to which hedge accounting is not applied and
- investment fund units.
All financial liabilities at fair value through profit or loss relate to derivatives not designated as hedging instruments in hedge accounting.
Fair value generally corresponds to the market or quoted market price. If no active market exists, fair value is determined using other observable inputs as far as possible. If no observable inputs are available, fair value is determined using valuation techniques, such as by discounting the future cash flows at the market interest rate, or by using recognized option pricing models, and, as far as possible, verified by confirmations from the banks that handle the transactions.
In the case of current financial receivables and liabilities, amortized cost generally corresponds to the principal or repayment amount.
The fair value option for financial assets and financial liabilities is not used in the Volkswagen Group.
Shares in subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures that are neither consolidated for reasons of materiality nor accounted for using the equity method do not fall within the scope of IFRS 9 and IFRS 7.
DERIVATIVES AND HEDGE ACCOUNTING
Volkswagen Group companies use derivatives to hedge balance sheet items and future cash flows (hedged items). Appropriate derivatives such as swaps, forward transactions and options are used as hedging instruments.
The accounting treatment of changes in the fair value of hedging instruments depends on the nature of the hedging relationship. In the case of hedges against the risk of change in the fair value of balance sheet items (fair value hedges), both the hedging instrument and the hedged risk portion of the hedged item are measured at fair value. If appropriate, several risk portions of the hedged items are combined into one portfolio. In a portfolio fair value hedge, changes in fair values are recognized on the basis of the individual transaction in the same way as in fair value hedging. Gains or losses from the measurement of hedging instruments and hedged items are recognized in profit or loss. In addition to the guidance of IFRS 9, the Volkswagen Group applies the guidance of IAS 39 on portfolio hedging to hedge the interest rate risk in the Financial Services Division.
In the case of hedges of future cash flows (cash flow hedges), the hedging instruments are also measured at fair value. The designated effective portion of the hedging instrument is accounted for through OCI I and the non-designated portion through OCI II. They are only recognized in the income statement or reclassified to inventories when the hedged item is realized. The ineffective portion of cash flow hedges is recognized through profit or loss immediately.
Derivatives used by the Volkswagen Group for financial management purposes to hedge against interest rate, foreign currency, commodity price, equity price, or fund price risks, but that do not meet the strict hedge accounting criteria of IFRS 9, are classified as financial assets or liabilities at fair value through profit or loss (referred to below as derivatives to which hedge accounting is not applied). This also applies to options on shares. External hedging instruments of intragroup hedged items that are subsequently eliminated in the consolidated financial statements are also assigned to this category as a general rule. Assets and liabilities measured at fair value through profit or loss consist of derivatives or components of derivatives that are not included in hedge accounting. These relate for example to the non-designated currency forwards used to hedge sales revenue, interest rate hedges, commodity forwards and swaps and currency forwards relating to commodity forwards and swaps.
IMPAIRMENT LOSSES ON FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
Financial assets are exposed to default risk, which is taken into account by recognizing loss allowances or, if losses have already been incurred, by recognizing impairment losses. Default risk on loans and receivables in the financial services segment is accounted for by recognizing specific loss allowances and general loss allowances.
In particular, a loss allowance is recognized on these financial assets in the amount of the expected loss in accordance with Group-wide standards. The actual specific loss allowances for the losses incurred are then charged to this loss allowance. A potential impairment is assumed not only for a number of situations such as delayed payment over a period of more than 90 days, the institution of enforcement measures, the threat of insolvency or overindebtedness, application for or the opening of bankruptcy proceedings, or the failure of reorganization measures, but also for receivables that are not past due.
Insignificant receivables and significant individual receivables for which there is no indication of impairment are grouped into homogeneous portfolios on the basis of comparable credit risk features and allocated by risk class. Average historical default probabilities in combination with forward-looking parameters for the respective portfolio are then used to calculate the amount of the impairment loss.
Credit risks must be considered for all financial assets measured at amortized cost or fair value through other comprehensive income (debt instruments), as well as for contract assets in accordance with IFRS 15 and lease receivables within the scope of IFRS 16. The rules on impairment also apply to risks from irrevocable credit commitments not recognized in the balance sheet and to the measurement of financial guarantees.
As a matter of principle, a simplified process, which takes historical default rates and forward-looking information into account, and specific loss allowances are used to account for impairment losses on receivables outside the Financial Services segment.
DEFERRED TAXES
The tax consequences of dividend payments are generally not taken into account until the resolution on appropriation of earnings available for distribution has been adopted.
Deferred tax assets that are unlikely to be realized within a clearly predictable period are reduced by loss allowances.
Deferred tax assets for tax loss carryforwards are usually measured on the basis of future taxable income over a planning period of five fiscal years.
INVENTORIES
Raw materials, consumables and supplies, merchandise, work in progress and self-produced finished goods reported in inventories are carried at the lower of cost or net realizable value. Borrowing costs are not capitalized. The measurement of same or similar inventories is generally based on the weighted average method.
SHARE-BASED PAYMENT
Share-based payment in the Volkswagen Group comprises cash-settled performance share plans that are recognized in accordance with IFRS 2.
OTHER PROVISIONS
Provisions not resulting in an outflow of resources within one year are recognized at their settlement value discounted to the balance sheet date. Discounting is based on market interest rates. An average discount rate of 2.87% (previous year: 3.16%) was used in the Eurozone. The settlement value also reflects cost increases expected.
OTHER LIABILITIES (NOT WITHIN THE SCOPE OF A SPECIFIC IFRS)
Other noncurrent liabilities outside the scope of a specific IFRS are carried at amortized cost in the balance sheet. Differences between historical cost and the repayment amount are amortized using the effective interest method.
Other current liabilities outside the scope of a specific IFRS are recognized at their repayment or settlement amount.
REVENUE AND EXPENSE RECOGNITION
Sales revenue, interest and commission income from financial services and other operating income are recognized only when the relevant services have been rendered or the goods have been delivered, i.e. when the customer has obtained control of the goods or services. Where new and used vehicles and original parts are sold, the Company’s performance generally occurs upon delivery, because that is the point when control is transferred, and the inventory risk and, for deliveries to a dealer, generally also the pricing decision pass to the customer. Revenue is reported net of sales allowances (discounts, customer bonuses, or rebates). The Volkswagen Group measures sales allowances and other variable consideration on the basis of experience and by taking account of current circumstances. Vehicles are normally sold to dealers on payment terms. A trade receivable is recognized for the period between vehicle delivery and receipt of payment. Any financing component included in the transaction is only recognized if the period between the transfer of the goods and the payment of consideration is longer than one year and the amount to be accrued is significant.
Income from financing and finance lease agreements is recognized using the effective interest method. If non-interest-bearing or low-interest vehicle financing arrangements are agreed, sales revenue for the vehicles is reduced by the interest benefits granted. Sales revenue from operate leases is recognized over the term of the contract on a straight line basis.
In contracts under which the goods or services are transferred over a period of time, revenue is recognized, depending on the type of goods or services provided, either according to the stage of completion or, to simplify, on a straight-line basis; the latter is only allowed if revenue recognition on a straight-line basis does not differ materially from recognition according to the stage of completion. As a rule, the stage of completion is determined as the proportion that contract costs incurred by the end of the reporting period bear to the estimated total contract costs (cost-to-cost method). Contract costs incurred generally represent the best way to measure the stage of completion for the performance obligation. If the outcome of a performance obligation satisfied over time is not sufficiently certain, but the Company expects, as a minimum, to recover its costs, revenue is only recognized in the amount of contract costs incurred (zero profit margin method). Since long-term construction contracts invariably give rise to contingent receivables from customers for the period to completion or payment by the customer, contract assets are recognized for the corresponding amounts. A trade receivable is recognized as soon as the Company has transferred the goods or services in full.
If services are sold to the customer at the same time as the vehicle, and the customer pays for them in advance, the Group recognizes a corresponding contract liability until the services have been transferred. Examples of services that customers pay for in advance are servicing, maintenance and certain warranty contracts as well as mobile online services. For extended warranties granted to all customers for a particular model, a provision is normally recognized in the same way as for statutory warranties. If the warranty is optional for the customer or includes an additional service component, the related sales revenue is deferred and recognized over the term of the warranty.
Income from the sale of assets for which a Group company has a buyback obligation is recognized only when the assets have definitively left the Group. If a fixed repurchase price was agreed when the contract was entered into, the difference between the selling price and the present value of the repurchase price is recognized ratably as income over the term of the contract. Prior to that time, the assets are carried as inventories in the case of short contract terms and as lease assets in the case of long contract terms.
Sales revenue is generally determined on the basis of the price stated in the contract. If variable consideration (e.g. volume-based bonus payments) has been agreed in a contract, the large number of contracts involved means that revenue has to be estimated using the expected value method. In exceptional cases, the most probable amount method may also be used. Once the expected sales revenue has been estimated, an additional check is carried out to determine whether there is any uncertainty that necessitates the reversal of the revenue initially recognized so that it can be virtually ruled out that sales revenue subsequently has to be adjusted downward. Provisions for reimbursements arise mainly from dealer bonuses.
In multiple element arrangements, the transaction price is allocated to the different performance obligations of the contract on the basis of relative standalone selling prices. In the Automotive Division, non-vehicle-related services are generally measured at their standalone selling prices for reasons of materiality.
Cost of sales includes the costs incurred to generate the sales revenue and the cost of goods purchased for resale. This item also includes the costs of additions to warranty provisions. Research and development costs not eligible for capitalization in the period and amortization of development costs are likewise carried under cost of sales. Reflecting the presentation of interest and commission income in sales revenue, the interest and commission expenses attributable to the financial services business are presented in cost of sales.
GOVERNMENT GRANTS
Government grants related to assets are deducted when arriving at the carrying amount of the asset and are recognized in profit or loss over the life of the depreciable asset as a reduced depreciation expense.
Government grants related to income, i.e. that compensate the Group for expenses incurred, are generally recognized in profit or loss for the period and allocated to those items in which the expenses to be compensated by the grants are also recognized. Grants in the form of nonmonetary assets (e.g. the use of land free of charge or the transfer of resources free of charge) are disclosed as a memo item.
ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS BY MANAGEMENT
Preparation of the consolidated financial statements requires management to make certain estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, and income and expenses, as well as the related disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities of the reporting period. The estimates and assumptions relate largely to the following matters:
The impairment testing of nonfinancial assets (especially goodwill, brand names, capitalized development costs and special operational equipment) and equity-accounted investments, or investments accounted at cost, and the measurement of options on shares in companies that are not traded in an active market require assumptions about the future cash flows during the planning period, and possibly beyond it, as well as about the discount rate to be applied. The estimates made in order to separate cash flows mainly relate to future market shares, the trend in the respective markets and the profitability of the Volkswagen Group’s products. When determining cash flows for conducting impairment tests on companies or equity investments with new technology operations, it is of particular importance to assess whether these new technologies are technically feasible and have the potential for industrial use. The recoverability of the Group’s lease assets depends in particular on the residual value of the leased vehicles after expiration of the lease term, because this represents a significant portion of the expected cash flows. More detailed information on impairment tests and the measurement parameters used for those tests can be found in the explanations above regarding intangible assets.
If there are no observable market inputs, the fair values of assets acquired and liabilities assumed in a business combination are measured using recognized valuation techniques, such as the relief-from-royalty method or the residual method.
Impairment testing of financial assets requires estimates about the extent and probability of occurrence of future events. As far as possible, estimates are derived from experience taking into account current market data as well as rating categories and scoring information. The sections entitled “IFRS 7 (Financial Instruments)” and “Financial risk management and financial instruments” contain further details on how to determine loss allowances.
Accounting for provisions is also based on estimates of the extent and probability of occurrence of future events, as well as estimates of the discount rate. As far as possible, these are also based on experience or external opinions. The assumptions applied in the measurement of pension provisions are described in the “Provisions for pensions and other post-employment benefits” section. Actuarial gains or losses arising from changes in measurement inputs are recognized in other comprehensive income and therefore do not affect profit or loss reported in the income statement. Any change in the estimates of the amount of other provisions is always recognized in profit or loss. The provisions are regularly adjusted to reflect new information obtained. The use of expected values invariably means that unused provisions are reversed or additional amounts have to be recognized for provisions. Similarly to expenses for the recognition of provisions, income from the reversal of provisions is allocated to the respective functions. Warranty claims from sales transactions are calculated on the basis of losses to date, estimated future losses and the policy on ex gratia arrangements. In addition, assumptions must be made about the nature and extent of future warranty and ex gratia claims.
For the provisions recognized in connection with the diesel issue, assumptions were made in particular for working hours, material costs and hourly wage rates, depending on the series, model year and country concerned. In addition, assumptions were made for future resale prices of repurchased vehicles. These assumptions are based on qualified estimates, which are based, in turn, upon external data, and also reflect additional information available internally, such as values derived from past experience. Further information on the legal proceedings and on the legal risks associated with the diesel issue can be found in the “Litigation” section.
Tax provisions were recognized for potential future retrospective tax payments, while other provisions were recognized for ancillary tax payments arising in this connection.
Volkswagen AG and its subsidiaries have operations worldwide and are audited by local tax authorities on an ongoing basis. Amendments to tax laws and changes in legal precedent and their interpretation by the tax authorities in the respective countries may lead to tax payments that differ from the estimates made in the financial statements.
The measurement of the tax provision is based on the most likely exposure resulting from this risk materializing. Volkswagen decides whether to account for multiple tax uncertainties separately or in groups on the merits of each individual case considered, depending on which type of presentation is better suited to predicting the extent to which the tax risk will materialize. The pricing of individual products and services is complex, especially in relation to contracts for the cross-border supply of intragroup goods and services, because it is in many cases not possible to observe market prices for internally generated products, or the use of market prices for similar products is subject to uncertainty because they are not comparable. In these cases, prices – including for tax purposes – are determined on the basis of standardized, generally accepted valuation techniques.
If actual developments differ from the assumptions made for recognizing the provisions, the figures actually recorded may differ compared to the estimates expected originally.
An overview of other provisions can be found in the “Noncurrent and current other provisions” section.
Government grants are recognized based on an assessment as to whether there is reasonable assurance that the Group companies will fulfill the conditions for awarding the grants and that the grants will in fact be awarded. This assessment is based on the nature of the legal entitlement and past experience.
Estimates of the useful life of finite-lived assets are based on experience and are reviewed regularly. Where estimates are modified the residual useful life is adjusted and an impairment loss is recognized, if necessary. As part of this review, the useful lives of certain items of property, plant and equipment were reassessed and extended in January 2023. These adjustments had a positive effect on the operating result in an amount of around €1.4 billion in 2023. A positive effect of around €0.8 billion is expected in 2024.
Estimates of lease terms under IFRS 16 are based on the non-cancelable period of a lease and an assessment of whether existing extension and termination options will be exercised. The determination of the lease term and the discount rates used impacts on the amounts to be recognized for right-of-use assets and lease liabilities.
Measuring deferred tax assets requires assumptions regarding future taxable income and the timing of the realization of deferred tax assets.
The estimates and assumptions are based on underlying assumptions that reflect the current state of available knowledge. Specifically, the expected future development of business was based on the circumstances known at the date of preparation of these consolidated financial statements and a realistic assessment of the future development of the global and sector-specific environment. Estimates and assumptions remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty because future business developments are subject to uncertainties that in part cannot be influenced by the Group. This applies in particular to short- and medium-term cash flow forecasts and to the discount rates used.
Developments in this environment that differ from the assumptions and that cannot be influenced by management could result in amounts that differ from the original estimates. If actual developments differ from the expected developments, the underlying assumptions and, if necessary, the carrying amounts of the assets and liabilities affected are adjusted.
Following the slump in global economic output in 2020 and the incipient recovery due to base and catch-up effects in 2021 and the continuing normalization of economic activity in 2022, despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global economy recorded positive overall growth of 2.7% in fiscal year 2023 (previous year: growth of 3.1%). The slowdown in economic momentum compared with the previous year was mainly due to weaker growth in the advanced economies, whereas the overall rate of change in the emerging markets increased somewhat.
The Volkswagen Group’s planning is based on the assumption that global economic output will grow overall in 2024 albeit at a slower pace. The persistently high inflation in many regions and the resulting restrictive monetary policy measures taken by central banks are expected to have an increasingly adverse effect on consumer spending. Risks will continue to arise from protectionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, continuing geopolitical tensions and conflicts are weighing on growth prospects; risks are associated in particular with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the confrontations in the Middle East. It is, however, assumed that both the advanced economies and the emerging markets will show positive momentum on average, even with below-average growth in gross domestic product. Moreover, the global economy is expected to recover in 2025 and continue a path of stable growth until 2028.
Estimates and assumptions by management were based in particular on assumptions relating to the development of the general economic environment, the automotive markets and the legal environment. These and further assumptions are explained in detail in the Report on Expected Developments, which is part of the group management report.