Trends in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
The trend in the automotive industry closely follows global economic developments. We assume that competition in the international automotive markets will intensify further. Crisis-related disruption to the global supply chain and the resulting impact on vehicle availability may weigh on the volume of new registrations. Uncertainty may also arise from shortages of intermediates and commodities. These may be further exacerbated by the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the confrontations in the Middle East and may, in particular, lead to rising prices for materials and a declining availability of energy.
We predict that trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions will be mixed but predominantly positive in 2024. Overall, the global volume of new car sales is expected to be slightly higher than in the previous year. We are forecasting growing demand for passenger cars worldwide in the period from 2025 to 2028.
Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will be mixed; on the whole, we expect the sales volume for 2024 to be slightly above the previous year’s figure. For the years 2025 to 2028, we expect demand for light commercial vehicles to increase globally.
Europe/Other Markets
For 2024, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in Western Europe will be slightly higher than that recorded in the reporting year. Limited vehicle availability as a result of the shortages of intermediates and commodities may continue to weigh on the volume of new registrations. For the major individual markets of France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain, we expect growth in 2024 to varying degrees between slight and noticeable.
For light commercial vehicles, we expect the volume of new registrations in Western Europe in 2024 to be noticeably up on the previous year’s level. Limited vehicle availability as a result of the shortages of intermediates and commodities may continue to weigh on the volume of new registrations. We expect a noticeable to significant increase in France and the United Kingdom. In Italy, we anticipate that registrations will fall slightly, whereas we expect slight growth in Spain.
Sales of passenger cars in 2024 are expected to significantly exceed the prior-year figures overall in markets in Central and Eastern Europe – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We expect a mixed development in the major markets of this region.
Subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, registrations of light commercial vehicles in the markets of Central and Eastern Europe are expected to fall slightly short of the prior-year figures in 2024.
The volume of new registrations for passenger cars in Türkiye in 2024 is projected to fall considerably short of the previous year’s high level. In South Africa, the market volume is likely to be up noticeably year-on-year.
The volume of new registrations for light commercial vehicles in 2024 is expected to fall very sharply in Türkiye but to be noticeably above the prior-year figure in South Africa.
Germany
In the German passenger car market, we expect the volume of new registrations in 2024 to be slightly up on the prior-year level.
We anticipate that the number of registrations of light commercial vehicles in 2024 will also be slightly up on the previous year’s figure.
North America
The sales volume in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America overall and in the USA in 2024 is forecast to be slightly higher than the level seen in the previous year. Demand will probably remain highest for models in the SUV and pickup segments. New registrations of all-electric vehicles are also expected to increase strongly. In Canada, too, a slight increase is expected in the number of new registrations compared to the previous year. For Mexico, we also expect a slight increase in new registrations compared with the reporting year.
South America
Owing to their dependence on demand for raw materials worldwide, the South American markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are heavily influenced by developments in the global economy. We anticipate a slight increase overall in new registrations in the South American markets in 2024 compared with the previous year. The market volume in Brazil is expected to increase noticeably compared with 2023. We anticipate that the volume of new registrations in Argentina will be slightly lower year-on-year.
Asia-Pacific
The passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to be slightly up on the prior-year level in 2024. We estimate that the market volume in China will also be slightly higher than the comparative figure for 2023. Plug-in hybrid models with long ranges are likely to be increasingly in demand. A weaker than expected economic recovery or worsening geopolitical tensions may have adverse effects. In particular, the trade dispute between China and the United States is likely to continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence, as long as there is no resolution in sight. We project that the Indian and Japanese markets will remain at the prior-year level.
The volume of new registrations for light commercial vehicles in the Asia-Pacific region in 2024 will probably be slightly higher than the previous year’s figure. We are expecting demand in the Chinese market to be slightly lower than the prior-year level. For India, we are forecasting that the volume in 2024 will be on a level with the reporting year. In the Japanese market, we estimate that volumes will be slightly lower year-on-year.