Business Development
The world economy recorded positive growth in fiscal year 2023. Global demand for vehicles was noticeably higher than in the previous year. Amid a challenging market environment, the Volkswagen Group delivered 9.2 million vehicles to customers.
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
The Russia-Ukraine conflict led to increased uncertainty in respect of developments in the global economy and prompted large sections of the community of Western states to impose sanctions on Russia, ranging from extensive trade embargoes to the partial exclusion of Russia from the global financial system. Russia itself, in its role as an energy exporter, restricted gas deliveries to Europe. The resulting shortage of supply led particularly in 2022 to rising prices on energy and commodity markets. While prices dropped in the reporting year as a result of weakening momentum in the global economy, they remain at a relatively high level in some cases. Furthermore, salary trends in the overheated labor markets, among other factors, pose the threat of continued high inflation.
After the slump in global economic output in 2020 and the incipient recovery due to baseline and catch-up effects in 2021, followed by a further normalization of economic activity in 2022 despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global economy recorded positive overall growth of +2.7 (+3.1)% in 2023. The slowdown in economic momentum versus the previous year was mainly due to weaker growth in the advanced economies, whereas the overall rate of change in the emerging markets increased somewhat. At national level, developments depended on the one hand on the intensity with which central banks had to tighten monetary policy to curb the higher inflation – mainly by raising interest rates and reducing bond holdings – which had a negative impact on consumer spending and investment activity. On the other hand, the extent to which national economies were affected by the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was a decisive factor. Prices for energy and many other raw materials were lower than in the previous year, and shortages of intermediate products and commodities eased somewhat. Global trade in goods expressed in nominal terms decreased in the reporting year.
Europe/Other Markets
The economy in Western Europe recorded positive, yet low overall growth of +0.4 (+3.5)% in 2023. This trend was seen in many countries in Northern and Southern Europe. The main reasons for this were the momentary and in some cases significant increases in energy and commodity prices, which had substantially pushed up inflation rates in the previous year and thus had a negative impact on consumer confidence. Business sentiment also deteriorated on average across all sectors. In addition, the restrictive monetary policy measures taken to rein in inflation impacted both consumer spending and investment.
The economies in Central and Eastern Europe recorded real growth in absolute gross domestic product (GDP) of +2.6 (+1.1)% in the reporting year. While economic output in Central Europe saw positive, albeit less dynamic growth of +1.7 (+4.5)%, GDP in the Eastern Europe region rose again in 2023 compared with the prior year for the first time since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a growth rate of +3.6 (−2.8)%. Inflation rates across the entire Central and Eastern Europe region declined on average in the reporting year, but remained at a high level.
In Türkiye, economic output for the year 2023 as a whole rose by +3.8 (+5.3)% amid very high inflation and a fall in the value of the local currency. South Africa saw slight GDP growth of +0.6 (+1.9)% in the reporting year, amid persistent structural deficits and political challenges.
Germany
Germany’s economic output recorded a negative growth rate of −0.2 (+1.9)% in the reporting year. Compared with the prior year, the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures rose on average. After reaching historically high levels in 2022, monthly inflation rates fell on average over the year, but remained relatively high.
North America
US economic output grew by +2.4 (+1.9)% in the reporting year. In view of high inflation and the tight labor market, the US Federal Reserve maintained its restrictive monetary policy and raised its key interest rate four times over the course of the reporting year. Unemployment remained at a low level in the reporting year. GDP rose by +1.1 (+3.8)% in neighboring Canada and by +3.3 (+3.9)% in Mexico.
South America
Brazil’s economy posted GDP growth of +3.0 (+3.1)% in 2023. Argentina registered a negative economic performance with a year-on-year decline in GDP of −1.7 (+5.0)% amid very high inflation and continued depreciation of the local currency.
Asia-Pacific
China’s economic output rose faster in the reporting year at +5.4 (+3.0)% compared with the previous year, positively influenced by the revocation of the zero-Covid strategy by the Chinese government. India registered strong growth of +6.9 (+7.3)%. Japan recorded positive growth of +1.9 (+0.9)% year-on-year.
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Percentage change in GDP
EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS FROM DECEMBER 2022 TO DECEMBER 2023
Index based on month-end prices: as of December 31, 2022 = 100
