Trends in the markets for commercial vehicles

For 2024, we expect to see a noticeable downward trend in new registrations for mid-sized and heavy trucks with a gross weight of more than six tonnes compared with the previous year in the markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group, with variations from region to region.

A noticeable decline in the market is expected in the 27 EU countries excluding Malta, but plus the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland (EU27+3). A large part of the pent-up demand for trucks from recent years was already met in the reporting year, meaning that demand will return to normal in 2024. We anticipate that Türkiye will see a significant drop in demand. In South Africa, we expect demand to be on a level with the previous year. The truck market in North America is divided into weight classes 1 to 8. We expect a noticeable decrease in new registrations in the segments relevant for Volkswagen – Class 6 to 8 (8.85 tonnes or heavier). After a weak 2023 impacted by new emissions legislation, we estimate that demand in Brazil will pick up again and be noticeably higher than in the previous year.

On average, we anticipate that the relevant truck markets will remain at a steady level for the years 2025 to 2028.

A noticeable year-on-year increase in demand is anticipated for 2024 in the bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group, whereby this will vary depending on the region. In the EU27+3 region, we expect demand on a level with the previous year. We forecast a significant increase in demand for school buses in the USA and Canada. For the bus market in Mexico, we anticipate a significant decline in volumes on account of the very strong trend in the reporting year. New registrations in Brazil will probably be on a level with the prior-year figure.

Overall, we expect demand for buses to be steady on average across the relevant markets for the period from 2025 to 2028.